May 5, 2018
First, a review of last week’s forecast:
- EUR/USD. For the third week in a row, the dollar continues to strengthen its positions, having won back about 500 points from the euro. Easing of tension in trade relations with China has rendered serious support for the US currency. By Friday, May 04, as most experts (60%) supported by 80% of the indicators had expected, the pair reached the lower border of the 1.1915-1.2085 range, after which a slight rebound followed, and it stopped at 1.1960;
- GBP/USD. The victory of the dollar over the British pound, which lost about 890 points in three weeks, is even more convincing. This "fiasco" was promoted by the weak macroeconomic statistics of Great Britain, and the weakening of hopes for the Bank of England's early change of its monetary policy, and the unresolved dispute with the EU regarding the Irish border. As a result, as predicted by 55% of analysts, oscillators and graphical analysis, the pair dropped to the values of this January and completed the five-day period at 1.3530;
- USD/JPY. 70% of analysts, supported by most of the indicators, were expecting the continuation of the uptrend. The target was the height of 109.80, which was reached by the pair on the first day of May. After that, it climbed another 20 points and, as predicted by the graphical analysis, turned around and left to the south, ending the week's session almost where it had started, in zone 109.10;
- Cryptocurrencies. In general, the outlook for the cryptocurrency pairs traded in the NordFX brokerage company turned out to be absolutely correct. As we have repeatedly said, because of the rather thin market and increased volatility in this segment, the main goal of the experts is to correctly predict the trend. And this was achieved. As for the levels of support/resistance that had been declared, they are rather approximate benchmarks rather than precise targets.
So, the past week has confirmed that Bitcoin loses its dominance, gradually giving way to altcoins. Thus, despite the fact that the total crypto market capitalization has reached 438 billion dollars, the Bitcoin share in it shrank to 35.9%.
The pair BTC/USD could not reach the landmark of $10,000, stopping at 9.825. Ripple hardly reached the target as well, having managed to conquer only the height of 0.8850. But the pair ETH/USD completed the task in full, fixing the weekly maximum at the height of 806 dollars. The same applies to LTC/USD. The goal for this pair was a return to the high of April 24, $165.00, which was what happened with an accuracy of 100%.
As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:
- EUR/USD. The market froze in anticipation, whether the long-awaited rebound of this pair will follow. We will say straight away that serious economic prerequisites for this are not yet around. But the market is still the market, and therefore about a third of the experts sided with the bulls, expecting the pair to rise first to resistance 1.2085, and then another 50-70 points higher. Such a development is confirmed by graphical analysis on H4 and D1, as well as 15% of oscillators, which give signals on D1 that the pair is oversold.
40% of analysts believe that the pair will take a breather and will move in the side channel 1.1900-1.2000 for a while. And, finally, the remaining 30% of experts are sure that the march to the south is not over yet, and we will see this pair in the zone 1.1800-1.1850 soon;
- A similar divergence of opinions can be observed when assessing the future GBP/USD. 40% of analysts are for the growth of the pair, 30% are for the sideways trend and 30% vote for its fall. 100% of the trend indicators and most of the oscillators are painted red. At the same time, 25% of oscillators on D1 indicate the pair is oversold, which is a signal strong enough to go up.
As for the graphical analysis, it predicts the movement in the side corridor 1.3470-1.3625 for the next few days, after which the pair should go to the north. The nearest target is 1.3790, the next one is 1.4000.
The decisive day for forming the trend is likely to be Thursday, May 10, which can be called the Day of the Bank of England. And much depends on whether and how much the interest rate on the British pound will be raised, and what the Central bank's chairman, Mark Carney, will say during his press conference.
The support levels are 1.3470 and 1.3300;
- Last week's reciprocal movement of the pair USD/JPY completely confounded not only the experts, but also the indicators: half of them recommend buying, the second half - selling. It is only graphic analysis, which both on H4 and D1 uniquely points to the south, calling 108.60, 107.40 and 106.60 as targets. The resistance levels are 109.50 and 110.00.
If we talk about forecasts up the end of May, it is already 70% of analysts who expect the pair to rise to the area of 111.50-112.00, and further - to an altitude of 113.40;
- Cryptocurrencies. Fundamental news around crypto market show increased activity of institutional investors, so experts expect the pair BTC/USD to continue to grow to the level of 10,300-10,700. The main support is 8.620. The forecast for the pair ETH/USD is growth to the $ 900 zone, support at the horizons of 700 and 595. LTC/USD: the goal is to rise to the levels of 175-180. XRP/USD: the goal is the same, to rise to the level of 0.92, and then to the zone 0.942-0.985, the support is 0.7230.
Roman Butko, NordFX
