October 20, 2018
First, a review of last week’s events:
- EUR/USD. As expected, the past week was filled with all sorts of events. These included macroeconomic statistics from the USA, data on inflation in Europe, the UK and China, indices of current economic sentiments in Germany and the EU, the meeting of the US Federal Reserve Committee on Open Market, data on China’s GDP and the EU Brexit summit.
All of these could affect the trends formation. Therefore, our experts considered two main scenarios. The first, "bullish" one, was the growth of the pair, first to the center of the medium-term channel 1.1525-1.1830, and then to its upper border. And the second, the “bearish”, the strengthening of the dollar and its decline to support 1.1430.
So, all these events happened, everything that could have happened, did happen. And what was the result? Well, there was no result. First, the pair implemented half of the “bullish” forecast, having risen to the level of 1.1621, then the “bearish” one, having touched the bottom in the 1.1430 zone, after which it returned to where it had already been two weeks before, as well as in August, in June, and even in May, to the level 1.1513;
- GBP/USD. The forecast given by most analysts and confirmed by 80% of the trend indicators and 70% of the oscillators on D1, has come true by 100%. According to the experts, the pair was supposed to reach the height of 1.3225, which it did on Tuesday, October 16.
In the medium term, the initiative should have passed into the hands (or paws) of the bears, who were supposed to have dropped it to the lows of early October in the 1.2920 zone. All this really happened in the second half of the week, the trend turned south, but so far, the pair was able to achieve only support 1.3010, after which a rebound followed, and it ended the session in 1.3065 zone;
- USD/JPY. Last week, it was not possible to give any clear recommendations on this pair: 45% of the experts voted for its decline, 20% for its growth, and 35% were for the sideways movement. These 35% turned out to be right: the maximum range of fluctuations of the pair did not exceed 110 points. The result was even more modest: having started from the level of 112.20, the pair finished the week at 112.55. Thus, the dollar managed to win back from the yen only 3 5 points in five days;
- Cryptocurrencies. We constantly write that the main factor determining the cryptocurrencies rates is not the economy and not the technical analysis figures, but the news and the rumors. The past week was a clear confirmation of this.
On the morning of Monday, October 15, most bitcoin owners jumped out of their beds, shouting "Hallelujah!" it started finally: the rate of this reference currency on some exchanges soared from the mark of $6,380 to $7,700 in just a couple of hours, that is, more than 20%!
This news was caused by problems with the Tether (USDT) cryptocurrency. Ordinary traders began to urgently sell off the stablecoin, buy up the bitcoin, as a result of which, the BTC/USD rate literally rushed into space.
But the happiness didn't last long. It became clear soon that all this was just a provocation, after which a no less sharp collapse followed, and the rate returned to the usual values of the past month and a half. As a result, the authors of these fake news earned good money, and those who bought into this fake, lost a lot. Those whose Stop Loss or Margin Call worked as a result of the jump are also sad.
We did not know what could happen on Monday October 15. But the forecast that the bitcoin, pushing off from the lowest point of its amplitude, should return to $6,325-6,835, turned out to be absolutely correct: the BTC/USD met Saturday at $6.535.
The bitcoin fate was repeated by the rest of the top cryptocurrencies: many, like, for example, the ripple (XRP/USD) and the ethereum (ETH/USD), ended the week with a slight increase, other, like the litecoin (LTH/USD), finished with the nil result.
As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:
- EUR/USD. Although some analysts talk about five, and even about ten key events of the coming week, in our opinion, it is not worth focusing on the economic calendar in this case, and it will not bring any special surprises for traders. Therefore, it may be worthwhile to pay more attention to longer-term forecasts and technical analysis.
Giving a forecast for the EUR/USD pair, most experts (70%) assess the outlook for the dollar positively. In their opinion, the goals of the pair are still the support levels of 1.1430 and 1.1300. About 70% of trend indicators and oscillators on H4 and more than 80% on D1 agree with this scenario.
The remaining experts, supported by graphical analysis on H4, believe that the pair has just moved one level down, and now the lower limit of the medium-term corridor 1.1525-1.1830 has become a Pivot Point for the new side channel 1.1430-1.1625, in which the pair will move for some time;
- GBP/USD. Negotiations on Brexit reached another deadlock last week. It became clear that it will not be possible to complete the deal between London and Brussels by mid-November. Against this background, more than 90% of the experts, supported by the absolute majority of indicators, expect the British pound to go further down. The closest support is 1.3010, the goal is 1.2900. The nearest resistance is at 1.3100-1.3130, the following is much higher, at 1.3215;
- USD/JPY. If for the pair GBP/USD the experts expect the dollar to strengthen, the picture for the USD/JPY is reversed: in their opinion, the Japanese yen should strengthen. Both 65% of analysts, graphical analysis, and oscillators on D 1 agree with this. The goals are 112.00, 111.65 and 110.70.
An alternative point of view is presented by 35% of analysts and 70% of indicators on H4. The resistance levels 112.75 and 113.50;
- Cryptocurrencies. It is clear that we, similar to most analysts, cannot predict the stuffing of the next fake news. However, there circulate sustained rumors that the Wall Street is preparing a second wave of invasion to the crypto market. One of the largest holding companies Fidelity Investments, Goldman Sachs, as well as other investment banks can become a “shock force”. However, these are all hopes of the blockchain apologists.
At the moment, the market is in a state of consolidation, and therefore we can only repeat the previous forecast with minor adjustments: the movement of the pair BTC/USD in the range $6,325-$6,900. At the same time, major players may still attempt to bring down the rate to the level of mining profitability in the region of $6,100, where they are beginning to actively buy coins.
A provocation similar to the one that happened on October 15, is unlikely in the near future.
Roman Butko, NordFX